Educational
Does the Market Really Rise After Diwali?
Every year around Diwali, a familiar claim returns: the market rallies after the festival. It sounds neat, but does the data agree? This post looks at ten years of Muhurat Trading results and what happened in the weeks after, so you can separate tradition from evidence.
What Muhurat Trading actually shows
Muhurat Trading is a special one-hour session held on Diwali to mark the start of a new Samvat year. From 2016 to 2025, both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex closed higher in eight of the ten sessions and lower in two.
The moves were tiny. The best session was 2022, when both indices gained 0.87 per cent. The weakest was 2017, when the Nifty fell 0.63 per cent and the Sensex 0.59 per cent. In 2025 the Nifty rose 0.10 per cent and the Sensex 0.07 per cent. Eight positive closes out of ten looks encouraging, but a gain of a fraction of a percent in one hour says very little about the weeks ahead.
What happens in the month after Diwali
An earlier review by 5paisa covering ten Diwalis found that the Sensex and Nifty fell during the month after Diwali in four of the ten years. In eight of the ten years, the indices moved by more than 2 per cent in one direction or the other within 30 days. The picture is mixed, and the swings were larger than anything seen in the Muhurat session itself.
What Samvat year returns say
Samvat year returns measure Diwali to Diwali. In Samvat 2081, the Sensex returned 6.26 per cent and the Nifty 6.76 per cent. That was a modest year even though it began on a positive note. The current year has had its own pressures. On 8 September 2026, the Sensex closed 6.57 per cent below its level a year earlier, with foreign investor selling and high crude oil prices weighing on sentiment.
Why a Diwali rally is not a rule
Fundamentals drive direction. Company earnings, interest rates, crude oil, foreign flows and global markets matter far more than the calendar.
Sentiment fades. A festive mood can lift trading for a day or two, but it does not change what a business earns.
The sample is small. Ten Diwalis are ten data points, which is not enough to call something a pattern.
Prices may already reflect the mood. Optimism before a festival can already be in the price.
What this means for you
Do not treat Muhurat Trading as a buy signal or a sell signal. It is a tradition.
Keep SIPs running on their usual dates. Regular investing does not need a festival to work.
Think about your holding period. Equity gains from holdings of 12 months or less are taxed at 20 per cent, while long-term gains above ₹1.25 lakh a year are taxed at 12.5 per cent.
Look at what you own. Earnings, valuation and risks matter more than the date.
If you want research views, use SEBI-registered Research Analysts and verify their registration. Markets are closed on 10 November for Diwali Balipratipada, so there is time to review before the next session.
The takeaway
Diwali is a good time to celebrate and a fair time to review your plan. The data does not show a reliable post-Diwali rally, so let your goals and holding period guide your decisions, not the festival calendar. You can also read our Muhurat Trading 2026 guide.
Quick Answers
Does the stock market always rise after Diwali? No. Muhurat sessions closed higher in eight of ten years from 2016 to 2025, but the month after Diwali has been mixed, with declines in four of ten years in an earlier review.
How big are Muhurat Trading moves? Small. The best session in the last decade was 0.87 per cent, and the weakest was a fall of 0.63 per cent for the Nifty in 2017.
What were Samvat 2081 returns? The Sensex returned 6.26 per cent and the Nifty 6.76 per cent from Diwali to Diwali.
Should I wait for Diwali to start investing? The data gives no reason to wait. Regular investing through SIPs is based on your goals and cash flow, not on a calendar date.
Sources
Anand Rathi: Muhurat Trading, 10-Year Nifty and Sensex Data
5paisa: Can Stock Markets Sustain Diwali Rallies? Here's What History Indicates
Sakshi Post: Stock Market Holiday Today, NSE and BSE Closed for Balipratipada 2025
Greater Kashmir (IANS): Sensex, Nifty End With Modest Gains in Special Muhurat Trading Session
Kuberhunt: Market Update, Sept 8, 2026: Sensex Falls for a Third Day, Trails Last Year by 6.5%
PL Capital: Stock Market Holidays in November 2026
DSP Mutual Fund: STCG and LTCG Rules in India
At a Glance
Metric | Value |
Muhurat sessions closing higher, 2016 to 2025 | 8 of 10 (Nifty and Sensex) |
Best Muhurat session in that period | 2022, +0.87% for both indices |
Weakest Muhurat session in that period | 2017, Nifty -0.63%, Sensex -0.59% |
Muhurat session 2025 | Nifty +0.10%, Sensex +0.07% |
Month after Diwali, earlier ten-year review | Fell in 4 of 10 years |
30-day move above 2% either way | 8 of 10 years |
Samvat 2081 return | Sensex 6.26%, Nifty 6.76% |
Sensex close on 8 Sept 2026 vs a year earlier | -6.57% |
Market holiday | Tuesday, 10 November 2026 |
Disclosure: This article is published by Kuberhunt for informational and educational purposes, drawing on third-party market analysis and publicly available brokerage, IMF, and Moody's research. Kuberhunt is a technology and research distribution platform connecting investors with SEBI-registered Research Analysts and Investment Advisors. Kuberhunt itself is not a Research Analyst or Investment Adviser and does not provide investment advice, create, or endorse any specific investment recommendation. This article does not constitute investment advice and should not be used as the basis for any trading decision. Cross-market return and earnings-growth figures are drawn from multiple secondary sources using different methodologies and time windows (calendar year vs. financial year, rupee vs. dollar terms); readers should treat comparisons as directional rather than precise and verify current figures independently before acting on them.
Educational content, not investment advice. Markets carry risk; read the disclosures on any Reco before you act on it.